IMF projects Vietnam’s 2020 economic growth slowing to 2.7% on coronavirus

However, Vietnam’s 2020 real GDP could be much higher than other Southeast Asian economies.

Malaysia’s economic growth seen to contract 1.7% while Thailand is expected to contract 6.7% this year, the Washington-based International Monetary Fund said in a report.

The organization sees economic growth of Indonesia and the Philippines in 2020 at 0.5% and 0.6% respectively.

Next year, Vietnam’s GDP growth is projected at 7%, the fourth-highest among ASEAN-5 countries, after Malaysia’s 9% growth, Indonesia’s 8.2%, the Philippines’s 7.6%, IMF said.

The rare disaster which has resulted in a tragically large number of human lives being lost will severely cost the global growth by –3.0 percent in 2020, an outcome is far worse than during the 2009 global financial crisis.

The disruptions are assumed to be concentrated mostly in the second quarter of 2020 for almost all countries except China where it is in the first quarter, with a gradual recovery thereafter as it takes some time for production to ramp up after the shock.

Growth in the advanced economy group where several economies are experiencing widespread outbreaks and deploying containment measures is projected at
–6.1 percent in 2020.

Most economies in the group are forecast to contract this year, including the United
States (–5.9 percent), Japan (–5.2 percent), the United Kingdom (–6.5 percent), Germany (–7.0 percent), France (–7.2 percent), Italy (–9.1 percent), and Spain (–8.0 percent).

Global growth is expected to rebound to 5.8 percent in 2021, well above trend, reflecting the normalization of economic activity from very low levels, according to the report.

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