TIẾNG VIỆT Vietnam real estate market: real prices waiting for real buyers
The real estate market is said to have "passed the bottom" and is on the road to recovery. Photo: Quy Hoa
According to data, the real estate market has experienced more positive developments. According to the Vietnam Real Estate Association, supply dropped significantly in the first quarter, with little over 1,000 sales.
There were around 3,700 successful transactions in the second quarter. By the third quarter, more than 5,000 successful transactions had occurred in the first two months, and 300 projects around the country had been listed for sale.
Stock increased, but mostly old projects. Though all efforts reorganized items and modified pricing, real transactions grew. Since prices have not changed much, 70% of these sales are flats, while land has less. “These numbers create momentum for the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024” despite current transactions being a few thousand compared to several tens of thousands in 2018-2019, according to Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association and Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association
Dr. Can Van Luc, BIDV Chief Economist and National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council member, claimed the real estate market had recovered 20–30% from its 2021 top. Fiscal policy continues to relax, delay taxes, lower fees, and help firms with cash flow and liquidity, contributing to the recovery.
Real estate "passed the bottom" and is recovering. Real estate credit expanded 4.68% in the first half of 2023, matching the general credit growth rate of 4.73%, according to the State Bank. Product restructuring, notably in high-end homes and resort tourism, is most noticeable.
After a period of stagnation, investors are focused on high-liquidity projects to boost cash flow. More social housing sales in the first and second quarters of 2024 will cause a market shift, according to experts. The idea to develop one million social and worker housing units can strengthen the market by closing the housing supply-demand gap.
Savills Vietnam said that over 2,500 new flats were released in the third quarter, somewhat alleviating the long-term supply constraint in Ho Chi Minh City. The Glory Heights neighborhood of Vinhomes Grand Park and new developments including Akari City, Mizuki Park, Conic Boulevard, Urban Green, Masteri Center Point, The Global City, MT Eastmark City, The Privia, and Salto Residence are popular. To melt the market in the remaining months, investors provide several tempting sales programs like flexible payment, discounted or eliminated loan interest rates.
This is the key to solving the long-standing paradox: there is no housing scarcity, just a lack of affordable supply. Due to restricted supply, real estate prices have skyrocketed since 2021, distorting the market.
The Vietnam Real Estate Association found that apartment prices rose 5-7%, home prices rose 15-20%, and land prices rose 20-30% since 2020. Affordable flats cost 25–30 million VND/m2, mid-range apartments 30–50 million, and high-end apartments over 50 million.
Experts expect market issues in 2023–2030 due to the lack of a national real estate market growth strategy through 2030. Challenges require answers.
Long-term solutions include legislative procedures, overlapping legislation, capital sources, inflationary pressures, higher interest rates, planning, and infrastructure quality. The market can only support recovery and progress if it becomes healthier, more transparent, and more standard.
