Vietnam’s exports continue to gain momentum: HSBC

According to the bank, the nation's exports continued to gain momentum, growing almost 6 percent year-on-year in October. The signs suggest that Vietnam is on track to recover from the global trade downturn.

HSBC noted that, thanks to favorable base effects in the last two months of the year, Vietnam's export growth is likely to accelerate. This heralds the long-anticipated recovery in the trade sector, which is expected to lift growth to 6–6.5 percent in 2024, according to the government.

Although phone shipments remain a drag, the export of computer and electronic parts has more than offset this weakness. In particular, imports of the latter have achieved double-digit growth for three consecutive months, pointing to an initial rebound in the electronics export cycle. Machinery shipments, given its close correlation with the electronics cycle, also soared. 

Encouragingly, its rebound is not limited to the external sector. After private consumption saw some marginal improvements in the third quarter, retail sales continued to recover, growing 7 percent year-on-year. 

In addition, inflation also began in the fourth quarter with some good news. Inflation momentum only rose marginally, up 0.1 percent against the previous month, which translates to a year-on-year inflation print of 3.6 percent. 

HSBC expects inflation to remain well below the State Bank of Vietnam's (SBV) 4.5 percent inflation ceiling. The bank's central case is for the SBV to hold its policy rate steady at 4.5 percent.

Statistics of the General Statistics Office showed that during January-October, export turnover was estimated at US$291.28 billion, down 7.1 percent year-on-year.

There were 33 products with an export turnover of over US$1 billion each, accounting for 92.9 percent of the country's total export turnover.

Exports of the processing and industrial industry was US$257.42 billion, accounting for 88.3 percent of the total export value.

Viet Nam ran a trade surplus of US$24.61 billion in the first 10 months of this year. 

Meanwhile, Viet Nam's total goods retail sales and consumer service revenues increased by 9.4 percent year-on-year in the first 10 months of this year to more than VND5.1 quadrillion (or US$ 207.5 billion).

Source: VGP