Experts predict that Q4's strong economic growth to boost the year's overall performance.

Many important indicators showed that the Vietnamese economy got better in the first three quarters of this year. A higher growth in the last quarter is expected to push the growth in 2024 and the following years.

According to Dinh Quang Hinh from VNDIRECT, Vietnam’s GDP expansion is predicted to rise 7% in the fourth quarter of 2023, contributing to increasing the whole year’s growth by 5.0%.

The expert said that the main things that led to growth during that time were a looser fiscal policy, lower interest rates on loans, and a recovering manufacturing industry. In the same time last year, Vietnam only saw 5.9% growth, Hinh said.

Meanwhile, Nguyen Phuong Lam from Viet Dragon Securities said that industrial production was better in the fourth quarter than in the previous quarters. This was due to the fact that the processing and manufacturing sector only grew by 3.0% in the same time period last year, which is much less than the 5.6% growth seen in the third quarter of 2023.

At the same time, in the first 10 months of this year, development investment was estimated at 401.9 trillion VND (16.58 billion USD), she noted.

Lam thought that the flow of public investment capital would continue to speed up in the last two months of 2023, which would help the economy grow as a whole. She did say that growth in the service sector would continue to slow down in the last three months of the year, though, and that industrial production still had not fully recovered.

Huynh Hoang Phuong, an economist from FIDT JSC, said that the health of the production sector has shown mixed signs of good and bad in recent times. However, the general trend of the manufacturing industry is to gradually improve thanks to the recovery of the export of key products.

In the next 6 to 9 months, Phuong thought that medium- and long-term interest rates for general production would stay low.

He also thought that the government would take steps to lower production costs, such as lowering taxes, fees, and land rent, and that cutting VAT by 2% in 2024 would be a good way for the manufacturing sector to grow and continue to recover.

Source: Vietnamplus