Experts point to 2024 economic growth engines

Production, export, real estate, and private investment are among the factors which are expected to drive the national economic growth next year.

Production and export are strongly recovering thanks to increasing orders, Dinh Quang Hinh, head of the Macro and Market Strategy Department of VNDirect Securities Corporation (VNDS), told Lao dong (Labour) newspaper.

He said Vietnam’s export revenue is projected to rise 7.5-8.0% in 2024, adding production recovery will also stimulate the demand for the import materials, machines and equipment.

Besides, improvements in foreign direct investment in Vietnam in the second half of this year and next will also play a crucial role in the recovery, Hinh continued.

The expert pointed out that rosy signs in the industry, employment and wage will boost domestic consumption, referring to the new salary policy to be applied from next July, along with 28 trillion VND (1.15 billion USD) to be spent on new pensions and social insurance benefits.  

Moreover, the real estate is bouncing back as its legal and financial obstacles are being removed, lending interest rates have been lowered and the corporate bond market heats up, helping clear up capital problems facing real estate developers, he said.

Hinh noted his hope that private investment will recover next year thanks to new projects and production scale-up to meet the growing domestic demand and new orders.

FiinGroup President Nguyen Quang Thuan, however, noted major risks to the economy in the year due to both intrinsic and extrinsic factors, explaining that the recovery prospects of the economies that are Vietnam’s big partners remain uncertain amid high international interest rates.

Meanwhile, the domestic real estate would remain “frozen” longer than expected, he elaborated, citing a forecast by organisations that it will only reboot in mid-2024, without giving specific time.

Earlier, the United Overseas Bank (UOB) has maintained its economic growth forecast for Vietnam at 5.2% for 2023 and 6% for 2024 while saying that Vietnam will continue to cut regulatory interest rates in the remaining months of this year to balance economic growth and inflation pressure.

The ADB also said Vietnam's economic growth is expected to stay at 5.8% in 2023 and 6.0% in 2024.

Standard Chartered Bank maintained robust 2024 GDP growth forecast of 6.7% for Vietnam in its latest macro-economic updates.

Source: Vietnamplus